To capture shifts in market sentiment around mergers and acquisitions (M&A), Sapling created a monthly updated Green Shoots M&A Index. The index is built using both actual and predicted M&A deal numbers and is designed to reflect monthly market activity momentum. It tracks deal activity trends and provides a simple, intuitive signal of where Canada and U.S. M&A Deals Index Momentum might be heading.

Built using a robust machine learning Random Forest model, the Green Shoots M&A Index combines historical deal data with key market indicators. Updated monthly, the index captures the rate of change in M&A activity, offering insight into how the market is evolving and how it may react based on historical patterns.

Updated by: Wendi Chen; Last update: 2025/4/21

Canada

  • In Canada, the Green Shoots M&A Index continued to land at ‘Wilt’ with a predictive value of 32 out of 100.

  • Canada recorded 238 M&A Deals in Mar 2026, with Sapling model 236 is forecasted in April.

  • Energy led Canada’s Q1 2026 deal value with US$14.8B (31 deals), followed by Mining at US$12.5B (190 deals, driven by gold). Two Energy, three Mining, and two Utilities deals ranked in the top 10, highlighting strong demand for resources and infrastructure.

  • Infrastructure and public-policy–linked sectors are also accelerating, supported by fiscal stimulus and “nation-building” investment priorities.

  • The future of CUSMA remains uncertain, with elevated tariff risk and potential M&A slowdown in sectors like steel, aluminum, and automotive (BLG).

U.S.

  • In the U.S., the Green Shoots M&A Index stood at 35 out of 100, continuing to signal the “Wilt” level.

  • US recorded 1,465 M&A Deals in Mar 2026, with Sapling model 1,451 in Apr 2026

  • Technology, Healthcare, and Utilities remain the most active sectors by deal size and volume, with strong growth vs. 2025, led by AI-driven investment in infrastructure, platform consolidation, and strategic partnerships

  • Computers & Electronics remains dominant on an LTM basis but saw a sharp March pullback in value (-88.8% MoM), suggesting a pause after prior strong activity.

  • Healthcare saw 22 hospital and health system transactions in Q1 2026, the highest Q1 level since 2020, with divestitures making up over two-thirds of deals, up from 45.6% in 2025, indicating increased portfolio rationalization.

How to Read?

To make the index easy to interpret, we normalized the monthly changes to a fixed scale of 0 to 100, using a Min-Max scaling method. Each stage reflects the prevailing level of M&A activity:

  1. Dormant (0-20): Phones are quiet. Boardrooms are still. The market is on pause, and activity has all but vanished.
  2. Wilt (21-40): Deals are inching forward, stuck in sluggish due diligence. Everyone’s cautious—no one wants to make the first move.
  3. Sprout (41-60): Pitch decks are floating around, conversations are picking up, but dealmakers are still hesitant to pull the trigger.
  4. Bloom (61-80): Valuations are stabilizing, acquirers are active, and term sheets are coming out of hibernation.
  5. Flourish (81-100): A surge in activity. Deals are closing fast, and the market is buzzing with momentum.
Download the Latest Report
Complete the form to access the latest report to uncover how we forecast Canada and U.S. M&A activity.

*The Sapling’s Green Shoots M&A Index and all related materials (“the Content”) have been developed by Sapling Financial Consultants Inc. It is intended to serve as a high-level reference tool, offering an overview of sentiment trends based on historical and projected M&A deal data. While built with care and methodological rigor, the Content is not a substitute for detailed financial modeling, advisory services, or any professional investment analysis.

**By providing your information and clicking Submit, you agree to our Disclaimer on the downloaded report and our Privacy Policy. You also elect to receive updates, newsletters, and offers from Sapling Financial Consultants Inc.

Ready to Work with Sapling?

We build best-in-class, custom financial models so you can make better decisions for your business