To capture shifts in market sentiment around mergers and acquisitions (M&A), Sapling created a monthly updated Green Shoots M&A Index. The index is built using both actual and predicted M&A deal numbers and is designed to reflect monthly market activity momentum. It tracks deal activity trends and provides a simple, intuitive signal of where Canada and U.S. M&A Deals Index Momentum might be heading.

Built using a robust machine learning Random Forest model, the index combines historical M&A deal data with key. It is updated monthly and is intended to provide insights into how the market could react, based on historical precedence and data.

Developed by: Yura Liu, MFE; Last update: 2025/06/12

Canada

  • In Canada, the Green Shoots M&A Index landed at ‘Sprout’ with a predictive value of 44 out of 100, suggesting a stable M&A environment with early signs of recovery, signaling a cautious return of investment confidence.

  • Canada recorded 241 M&A deals in May, with Sapling’s model forecasting a modest rise to 247 in June.

U.S.

  • In the U.S., the Green Shoots M&A Index registered a score of 43 out of 100, earning a ‘Sprout,’ level of M&A activity, reflecting market stability and the first signs of renewed deal-making.

  • In May, the U.S. saw 1,308 M&A transactions, with Sapling’s model projecting an increase to 1,388 deals in June.

How to Read?

To make the index easy to interpret, we normalized the monthly changes to a fixed scale of 0 to 100, using a Min-Max scaling method. Each stage reflects the prevailing level of M&A activity:

  1. Dormant (0-20): Phones are quiet. Boardrooms are still. The market is on pause, and activity has all but vanished.
  2. Wilt (21-40): Deals are inching forward, stuck in sluggish due diligence. Everyone’s cautious—no one wants to make the first move.
  3. Sprout (41-60): Pitch decks are floating around, conversations are picking up, but dealmakers are still hesitant to pull the trigger.
  4. Bloom (61-80): Valuations are stabilizing, acquirers are active, and term sheets are coming out of hibernation.
  5. Flourish (81-100): A surge in activity. Deals are closing fast, and the market is buzzing with momentum.
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*The Sapling’s Green Shoots M&A Index and all related materials (“the Content”) have been developed by Sapling Financial Consultants Inc. It is intended to serve as a high-level reference tool, offering an overview of sentiment trends based on historical and projected M&A deal data. While built with care and methodological rigor, the Content is not a substitute for detailed financial modeling, advisory services, or any professional investment analysis.

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