Sapling’s Green Shoots M&A Index (Canada & U.S.)

To capture shifts in market sentiment around mergers and acquisitions (M&A), Sapling created a monthly updated Green Shoots M&A Index. The index is built using both actual and predicted M&A deal numbers and is designed to reflect monthly market activity momentum. It tracks deal activity trends and provides a simple, intuitive signal of where Canada and U.S. M&A Deals Index Momentum might be heading.

Built using a robust machine learning Random Forest model, the Green Shoots M&A Index combines historical deal data with key market indicators. Updated monthly, the index captures the rate of change in M&A activity, offering insight into how the market is evolving and how it may react based on historical patterns.

Developed by: Yura Liu, MFE; Last update: 2025/07/10

Canada

In Canada, the Green Shoots M&A Index landed at ‘Sprout’ with a predictive value of 45 out of 100, suggesting a stable M&A environment with early signs of recovery, signaling a cautious return of investment confidence.
Canada recorded 223 M&A Deals in June 2025. With Sapling model, 230 deals are forecasted for July 2025

U.S.

In the U.S., the Green Shoots M&A Index came in at 37 out of 100, landing in the ‘Wilt’ category. This suggests that while M&A activity remains modest, the market is still growing—just at a slower rate than in earlier months.
US recorded 1311 M&A Deals in June 2025, with Sapling model 1314 deals are forecasted for July 2025

How to Read?

To make the index easy to interpret, we normalized the monthly changes to a fixed scale of 0 to 100, using a Min-Max scaling method. Each stage reflects the prevailing level of M&A activity:

Dormant (0-20): Phones are quiet. Boardrooms are still. The market is on pause, and activity has all but vanished.
Wilt (21-40): Deals are inching forward, stuck in sluggish due diligence. Everyone’s cautious—no one wants to make the first move.
Sprout (41-60): Pitch decks are floating around, conversations are picking up, but dealmakers are still hesitant to pull the trigger.
Bloom (61-80): Valuations are stabilizing, acquirers are active, and term sheets are coming out of hibernation.
Flourish (81-100): A surge in activity. Deals are closing fast, and the market is buzzing with momentum.

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*The Sapling’s Green Shoots M&A Index and all related materials (“the Content”) have been developed by Sapling Financial Consultants Inc. It is intended to serve as a high-level reference tool, offering an overview of sentiment trends based on historical and projected M&A deal data. While built with care and methodological rigor, the Content is not a substitute for detailed financial modeling, advisory services, or any professional investment analysis.

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