Sapling’s Green Shoots M&A Index (Canada & U.S.)

To capture shifts in market sentiment around mergers and acquisitions (M&A), Sapling created a monthly updated Green Shoots M&A Index. The index is built using both actual and predicted M&A deal numbers and is designed to reflect monthly market activity momentum. It tracks deal activity trends and provides a simple, intuitive signal of where Canada and U.S. M&A Deals Index Momentum might be heading.

Built using a robust machine learning Random Forest model, the Green Shoots M&A Index combines historical deal data with key market indicators. Updated monthly, the index captures the rate of change in M&A activity, offering insight into how the market is evolving and how it may react based on historical patterns.

Updated by: Wendi Chen; Last update: 2025/1/16

Canada

In Canada, the Green Shoots M&A Index landed at ‘Wilt’ with a predictive value of 35 out of 100. Canada is currently outpacing the US due to lower inflation and stabilized interest rates that have improved financing conditions.
Canada recorded 246 M&A Deals in December 2025. With Sapling model, 230 deals are forecasted for January 2026.
Industries Driving Deal Activity – Canada 2025
- Technology: Deal activity continues to accelerate, with Canada remaining a leading U.S. cross-border partner in tech and IP-driven transactions.
- Infrastructure & Energy: Energy and utilities are re-accelerating, reflecting a rebound in U.S. activity and attracting institutional capital and strategic buyers.
- Traditional Industries: M&A activity is more cautious compared with previous periods.

U.S.

In the U.S., the Green Shoots M&A Index dropped to 35 out of 100, reaching the ‘Wilt’ level.
The U.S. recorded 1,462 M&A Deals in November 2025, with Sapling model forecasting 1,440 deals for January 2026.
Industries Driving Deal Activity – U.S. 2025
- Computers & Electronics: Largest driver by deal value and volume, fueled by AI, semiconductors, software, and data infrastructure. Deal value rose ~89.8% YoY, the fastest-growing sector.
- Healthcare: Maintains high deal volume, attracting strategic buyers and financial sponsors.
- Professional Services: Second-highest deal count; activity driven more by volume than large transactions.
- Telecommunications; Utility & Energy: Re-entered top industries by deal value after a weaker 2024, signalling renewed momentum.
- Oil & Gas: Showed a relative slowdown vs. the prior year.

How to Read?

To make the index easy to interpret, we normalized the monthly changes to a fixed scale of 0 to 100, using a Min-Max scaling method. Each stage reflects the prevailing level of M&A activity:

Dormant (0-20): Phones are quiet. Boardrooms are still. The market is on pause, and activity has all but vanished.
Wilt (21-40): Deals are inching forward, stuck in sluggish due diligence. Everyone’s cautious—no one wants to make the first move.
Sprout (41-60): Pitch decks are floating around, conversations are picking up, but dealmakers are still hesitant to pull the trigger.
Bloom (61-80): Valuations are stabilizing, acquirers are active, and term sheets are coming out of hibernation.
Flourish (81-100): A surge in activity. Deals are closing fast, and the market is buzzing with momentum.

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*The Sapling’s Green Shoots M&A Index and all related materials (“the Content”) have been developed by Sapling Financial Consultants Inc. It is intended to serve as a high-level reference tool, offering an overview of sentiment trends based on historical and projected M&A deal data. While built with care and methodological rigor, the Content is not a substitute for detailed financial modeling, advisory services, or any professional investment analysis.

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