CLIENT: Agricultural Company

A sustainable food and agricultural company in North America had previously engaged Sapling to develop an in-depth financial model outlining the operational and return metrics of opening a new farm. Following this, Sapling was re-engaged to build a Monte Carlo (MC) model simulating the return and probability of different strike prices for warrants that the client had purchased

Farmer uses a futuristic projection touch screen to control autonomous harvester
Key Insights

Sapling researched statistical techniques to find the best probability distribution to match the MC model. Historical stock prices and volatilities of sector comparable were found as a baseline for model assumptions

Statistical certainty improves as one increases simulation sizes - Sapling was able to build a MC model in Excel and run 100,000 simulations to generate robust results

The Monte Carlo model was used to layer into an existing financial model detailing operational metrics that Sapling had built for the client

EXAMPLE: 250 SIMULATION PLOT (BY MONTH)
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